Too Close for Booker’s Comfort

Most politicians would be happy winning with an 11-point margin (according to The Bergen Record; however, every time they  posted the numbers, they’ve misreported them by one point – Booker won by 10 points, not 11).  That was one more point too close for comfort for Booker’s team and the Media.  That’s how close Lonegan was to the single digit margin he spoke about on Tuesday evening on the Morristown Green.

The headline in today’s Bergen Record reads:  “Is Winning Enough?”  What they meant was, is winning by 10 points enough?  The Record’s Washington correspondent, Herb Jackson writes, “Questions linger a day after [Booker defeated Lonegan].”

“Bluntly pitching hard-line Conservative views [such as, Lonegan promised to represent hard-working, suburban voters and uphold the Constitution], that showed large numbers of New Jerseyans did not share, Lonegan won more than 44 percent of the vote against a better-known, better-liked candidate with significantly more money in a blue state.”

Is that the sound of Liberal Democrats going, “Uh-ohhh….”?  Lonegan was closing a gap that began somewhere in the mid-thirties and came to one point away from trailing Booker by single digits.  Given more time for the Conservative message to sink in, would Lonegan have won if the election had been held on Nov. 5th?  Obama urged Americans yesterday not to listen to the Conservative bloggers and radio talking heads.  Just listen to him.  He should be listening to us – but he’s not.

Lonegan did not have much support from the New Jersey GOP.  They didn’t put up Lonegan’s signs; Tea Partiers did that.  They sponsored the final rally in Morristown; but it was the Tea Party network that publicized it and got a moderate crowd out the night before the election.

Was it the GOP that sponsored the well-attended Lonegan rally in New Egypt this past weekend, featuring such political luminaries as Sarah Palin and Rand Paul?  Or was it Lonegan’s own campaign staff and a sea of Tea Party groups from all over the state?

Booker himself attributes the fairly narrow margin to an aberration of an off-year, special election.  The turnout was abysmally low, it’s true.  Off-year elections usually are poorly attended.  Non-Democrats stated some of the reasons as not trusting the candidate (or any candidate –  ‘We elect them to office, then find out they’re crooks.’).

The political machine is partly to blame.  But so are the voters, who notoriously avoid the primaries.  Jackson’s assertion that Lonegan is not well-known is completely wrong; the Media has been bashing the three-time mayor of Bogota for years.  As for not being “better liked by large numbers of people” you could argue that certainly large numbers of people in Newark and Paterson don’t like him.  But then, large numbers of voters in the suburbs dislike Booker and Newark.  They would tell you so, if they could do so without being charged as “racists.”

However voters in the rest of the state felt, “large numbers” of voters in northern Passaic County liked Lonegan well enough.  If more of them had actually turned out, he might just have won the county.  The unofficial tally was Booker, 37,012 versus Lonegan, 25,167.  That’s a margin of 11,845.  In effect, the city of Paterson basically won the election for Booker (12,704) with a 32 percent margin.  However, Lonegan won the suburbs.  If those towns that voted for Lonegan had turned out more voters – and those towns had a better turnout than the cities – would he have won?

Here’s the unofficial tally from the Passaic County Board of Elections:

Lonegan                      Votes               Turnout

Bloomingdale:                771                  26%

Hawthorne                  1,604                  17%

Little Falls                   1,021                  24%

North Haledon                        1,298                  30%

Pompton Lakes              973                  23%

Ringwood                   1,393                  28%

Totowa                        1,150                  24%

Wanaque                     1,138                  28%

Wayne                         5,402                  25%

West Milford              2,969                  26%

Booker

Clifton                         5,635                  20%

Haledon                         545                  17%

Passaic                         3,515                  16%

Paterson                    12,704                  17%

Prospect Park                 478                  18%

Woodland Park           1,125                  24%

(formerly West Paterson)

Terrible turnout numbers.  But how can we tell if Lonegan would have won?  We can’t, because in every case, the greatest number of registered voters are unaffiliated.  They keep their choice of candidate close to the vest.  In cities like Paterson, the number of official Republican voters is something like 2 percent.

Still, Lonegan won all of northern Passaic County, and even some of the suburbs of Paterson (North Haledon, Hawthorne, Totowa).  Little Falls was extremely close, but Lonegan still won.  With a couple of blighted cities within its precincts, and a number of towns harboring unionized, blue-collar workers, Passaic County is a tough fight.  Democrats in the Lonegan towns constituted another 7,887 voters.  Republicans in Democrat towns constituted 7,428 votes.

Then there were the mail-in ballots.  Booker, 2,214; Lonegan 1,336.

I’m not certain of the remaining statistics.  The suburbs seem to have the advantage in number of registered voters per population.  Most towns are in the 80 percent range.  Kinnelon’s population (God bless them) is registered at 95.5%, if my math is correct.  There’s going to be a certain percentage of any population that can’t register to vote, for various reasons.  If someone could do a poll to find out what percentage of those residents simply don’t feel like registering, we’d make great strides in increasing our strength.  The cities have the greater population numbers.  But unless Obama gets his way with granting amnesty to illegal aliens and felons, the “residents” in those large cities will never be able to vote, a factor in our favor.

If Lonegan didn’t win, he also didn’t lose by a wide margin.  That gives hope to Conservatives.  He closed a gap by some 20 percent.  Think what he could have done, given a little more time.  His race is over, but the Conservative race is just warming up.  The Liberals would never admit it, but Lonegan’s campaign has made them a little nervous.  The Conservative message was more palatable than they bargained on, and it was all due to the shoe-leather work of the Tea Party messengers, going door-to-door, talking with voters about Conservative values.

Those residents discovered Tea Partiers are quite sensible, intelligent and articulate people, citing the legal U.S. Constitution and the principles of the Founding Fathers who wrote the owners’ manual for the United States of America.  Most people don’t even know what a Senator does, beyond going to celebrity parties, shaking hands with urban community organizers, and buying votes.

The Independent voters are right to be concerned about our elected representatives; both parties are extremely corrupt.  You can’t really blame the Independents for being skeptical.  Lonegan was running on the GOP ticket and we all know what to expect from the Republican Party.  The GOP has bled itself dry trying to appeal, appease, and applaud the Democrat party.  Those jumping off their bandwagon aren’t heading for the Democrat party; they register as unaffiliated.  When they see the GOP offering up old men as candidates and caving in when the Media lashes its candidates with charges of racism and greed, they either vote for the other guy or stay home.

The Media have propagandized the Tea Party for good reason; we’re a danger to the bureaucracy.  That’s what we want to tear down – the bureaucracy, not the government itself, necessarily.  The unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats who are running our lives.  Obama gloated that most Americans are “fed up with Washington.”  No one wants to come out and criticize Obama for fear of being charged with racism.  But he’s the Number One problem in Washington, followed by the Progressives of both parties, giving each other compromising hugs.

We’re fed up with the increasing levels of bureaucracy that no battering ram seems to be able to break through.  Although the Media has totally mischaracterized us, making the people fear or despise us, we really do represent the average American, especially the suburban American.  Where we differ is that we keep ourselves informed about what’s happening.  We network.  We read.  We listen.  We criticize intrepidly.  Obama is not a king or an emperor, much as he’d like to be.  Our elected representatives, though they be educated lawyers, are still answerable to us.  We will not tolerate being patronized or ignored.

The facts, our history, and the U.S. Constitution speak for themselves.  But you won’t hear them if you plug up your ears, blind your eyes, and zip up your mouth.  The easy way you’re taking out by surrendering won’t be as easy as you think it will be.

Don’t wait until it’s too late to find out.  It’s never too late.

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Published in: on October 18, 2013 at 11:58 am  Comments (1)  

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One CommentLeave a comment

  1. The best analysis of the Lonegan-Booker Jersey race.


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