The Eight Percenters

If you look at Fox News’ metadata in their recent post-debate poll, you find some rather curious information.

In theoretical races between Hillary and Jeb Bush, and Hillary and Marco Rubio, both men would beat Hillary by 2 percent. In other words, it would be a statistical tie”

Total

Hillary Clinton (D)       42%

Jeb Bush (R)                 44% þ

Hillary Clinton (D)       42%

Marco Rubio (R)        44% þ

In races between Hillary and Carly Fiorina, and Hillary and Donald Trump, Hillary wins:

Total

Hillary Clinton (D)       47%   þ

Carly Fiorina (R)           40%

Hillary Clinton (D)       47% þ

Donald Trump (R)       42%

Where does The Donald pick up the extra 2 percent of votes over Fiorina? From Democrat voters who would vote for him rather than Carly. Yet they wouldn’t vote for Carly. In fact, overall, Trump gains more votes than Fiorina. But it’s the Democrats who make up that difference. One percent of Republicans who said they would vote as Independents if given the choice between Hillary and Carly, switched to the Independent vote when given a chance between Hillary and Trump.

Fiorina edges out Hillary by one percent with college-educated voters, but they swing back to Hillary by 5 percent when given the choice of Clinton versus Trump.

Either Jeb or Rubio would defeat Hillary if the election had been held at the time of this poll. Fiorina, a relative unknown, would have lost by 7 percent, and Trump, definitely not an unknown, would have lost by 5 percent.

But in a three-way election, with Trump running as an Independent, Clinton would still win, as a minority candidate, with only 40 percent of the vote, while Bush or Rubio would only get 29 percent and 30 percent of the vote, respectively, with Trump making up the other 22 to 23 percent.

The split vote would send Hillary to the White House. What’s ironic is that totaling the votes up between Bush/Rubio and Trump shows a greater percentage of votes than any of the three of them garner individually: 52 percent of the vote.

Where does that other 8 to 10 percent of the vote come from? Independents favor Bush or Rubio over Hillary, in a two-way race by 11 percent and 18 percent. Throw Trump into the mix, and they lose 13 percent and 19 percent. Trump himself loses by 19 and 20 percent.

Among Republicans, they also lose another 28 and 30 percent of those voters. Out of the 11 to 12 percent of Democrats who said they’d vote for either Bush or Rubio, 4 to 5 percent of those voters flee, while Hillary’s and Trump’s numbers among those voters remains the same.

More Republicans vote in the three-way: 9 percent. More Men vote in the three-way: again, 9 percent. More women vote in the three-way:   5 to 6 percent. More Whites vote in the three-way, especially if the race includes Rubio: 22 percent more voters. And slightly more college-educated voters: about 3 percent.

Republican voters, it appears, would rather fight than win, especially Men. A Republican election is thus endangered. Even with 9 percent of the voters fleeing from Hillary, she would still win. But the race is not over. Is it the 9 percent of Men or the 9 percent of Independents who are causing this polling mayhem?

How does that 9 percent of Independents know to flee Hillary, rather than 11 percent, which would put her in a tie with Bush? How does that small number of randomly polled voters know for whom they should cast their vote in a poll so that the numbers come out the way they do?

Do they text one another and say, “Heads up! A pollster is going to call you”? Do they all sit in one room together so that two percent of the room of say, 20 Independent voters, knows to say “Bush” or “Rubio” or “Trump” instead of “Hillary” when their cell phone rings? Are they Democrats posing as Independents, throwing off the scent of the scientific pollster hound dogs?

If it were a huge majority of Independents, there would be no question; it’s just that the way the numbers come out is suspicious.

With 16 Republican candidates, Trump is in the lead with 25 percent of the voters. But 75 percent of Republican voters still think someone else should be in office. They just haven’t made up their minds who that should be, or when the race narrows, they might throw their chips in for Trump.

One thing is clear: without him, many more Republican voters will stay home. Still, Bush or Rubio will win or so it seems by a very narrow margin in these early stages of an election that won’t take place for another year yet.

Rubio stands more of a chance among Independents than Bush, with a 7 percent lead in this poll. More voters vowed to stay home if Bush or Trump was in the race than Rubio. In a three-way, those stay-at-home numbers go down to 3 to 4 percent.

The GOP is between a rock and a hard place, which is exactly where it deserves to be.

Glenn Beck asked on his radio program today why it’s so hard to convince Trump supporters to rethink their vote. His competitors/friends have urged him to remain silent on the matter; his rhetoric will only cause Trump supporters to dig in their heels.

Glenn’s just not a poker player, it seems. He doesn’t have a poker face. Trump does, and so did Ronald Reagan. Now that Trump has gotten rid of Roger Stone and signed a truce with Fox News, he may improve upon acquaintance. The argument that Trump has changed stances over the years will not hold water with frustrated Conservative Republican voters.

That’s exactly what the people they’ve voted for in the past have done. At least Trump, if he has in fact switched as he claimed, has switched in the right direction.

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Published in: on August 18, 2015 at 3:34 pm  Leave a Comment  

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